Gottwald-Melbourne

Chaos vs regular dynamics, classification confidence
dynamicaldim translation plane4 metrics

What It Measures

Is the signal chaotic or regular? A binary classification with a confidence estimate.

Constructs 2D translation variables p(n) and q(n) by accumulating the signal modulated by cosine and sine at random frequencies. For chaotic signals, (p, q) performs a random walk whose mean square displacement grows linearly, giving K = 1. For regular signals, (p, q) stays bounded, giving K = 0. The median over 10 random frequencies provides robustness. No embedding dimension or lag estimation required.

Metrics

k_statistic

The chaos indicator: 0 = regular, 1 = chaotic. Rossler Hyperchaos scores 1.0 (textbook chaos). Ocean Wind (0.999) and Gzip (0.999) score nearly 1.0 — both appear chaotic to this test. All logistic periodic orbits score exactly 0.0 (perfectly regular). The key limitation: noise also gives K = 1 because uncorrelated random walks have linearly growing MSD. This test distinguishes chaos from periodicity, not chaos from noise.

k_variance

Interquartile range of K across the 10 random frequencies. Low variance means the classification is confident. L-System Dragon Curve scores 0.884 (highest variance — the test can't make up its mind because the signal is at the boundary between order and chaos). Champernowne (0.831) and De Bruijn (0.769) are similarly ambiguous. Constants and periodic orbits have zero variance (confidently regular).

angular_spectral_structure

Spectral structure of the angular component of the (p,q) translation variables. L-System Dragon (1.0) scores highest — its angular dynamics have concentrated spectral energy. Random Steps (0.0) has no angular spectral structure. This captures periodic or quasi-periodic structure in the rotational component of the 0-1 test variables that the scalar K statistic misses.

radial_spectral_structure

Spectral structure of the radial component of the (p,q) translation variables. Similar interpretation to angular_spectral_structure but for the growth component. Together, angular and radial spectral structure decompose the 0-1 test's 2D dynamics into rotation and expansion, providing richer information than the single K statistic.

Atlas Rankings

angular_spectral_structure
SourceDomainValue
Logistic r=3.2 (Period-2)chaos0.9976
Logistic r=3.5 (Period-4)chaos0.9896
Logistic r=3.83 (Period-3 Window)chaos0.9843
···
Constant 0xFFnoise0.0000
Rainfall (ORD Hourly)climate0.4344
Nikkei Returnsfinancial0.4348
k_statistic
SourceDomainValue
Rössler Hyperchaoschaos0.9997
Ocean Wind (Buoy)climate0.9985
Poisson Countsexotic0.9984
···
Constant 0xFFnoise0.0000
Logistic r=3.5 (Period-4)chaos0.0000
Logistic r=3.2 (Period-2)chaos0.0000
k_variance
SourceDomainValue
L-System (Dragon Curve)exotic0.8832
Champernownenumber_theory0.8424
De Bruijn Sequencenumber_theory0.7694
···
Constant 0xFFnoise0.0000
Logistic r=3.5 (Period-4)chaos0.0000
Logistic r=3.2 (Period-2)chaos0.0001
radial_spectral_structure
SourceDomainValue
Logistic r=3.2 (Period-2)chaos0.9997
Van der Pol Oscillatorexotic0.9996
Damped Pendulummotion0.9996
···
Constant 0xFFnoise0.0000
Rule 30exotic0.4355
Benford's Lawnumber_theory0.4369

When It Lights Up

Gottwald-Melbourne is the framework's only embedding-free chaos test. Its strength is that it requires no parameter tuning — no embedding dimension, no lag, no threshold selection. Its weakness is that it cannot distinguish chaos from noise (both give K = 1). In practice it's most useful paired with Attractor Reconstruction: K = 1 with finite D2 means chaos; K = 1 with unsaturated D2 means noise. The k_variance metric is uniquely informative for edge-of-chaos signals — high variance at K = 0.5 detects intermittency and crisis transitions that the binary K statistic misses.

Open in Atlas
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